Over the past 15 months, both consumers and businesses have had to adapt to the ever-increasing interest rates brought about by the Federal Reserve Board’s 11 consecutive rate hikes since March 2022. However, with the recent decision by the Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee (FOMC) to hold rates steady, it seems that the era of rising rates may be coming to an end. This development offers a mixed bag of good and bad news for consumers. To gain a clearer understanding of what this means going forward, let’s delve into how we arrived at this point.

Addressing the Flames of Inflation

When COVID-19 struck the United States, federal and local governments swiftly took action to prevent a severe health crisis from devastating the economy. Through fiscal measures like direct spending and stimulus checks, as well as monetary policies such as rate cuts and injecting liquidity into the banking system, officials managed to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic.

Unfortunately, the significant injection of liquidity resulted in an imbalance of supply and demand. With factories struggling to keep up due to supply chain bottlenecks and workers staying home, there were too many dollars chasing too few goods. On top of that, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused commodity prices to skyrocket, further driving up the cost of production. As a result, we witnessed inflation reach levels unseen in 40 years.

To combat inflation, the Fed began raising interest rates to cool down demand. So far, they have raised rates by a total of 500 basis points (5 percent), bringing them to a range of 5 to 5.25 percent. This effort has largely been successful, as the Consumer Price Index has declined from its peak of 9.1 percent year over year in June 2022 to 4.9 percent as of April this year. Given that rate hikes take time to fully impact the economy, it is widely believed that inflation will continue to ease in the coming months.

With inflationary pressures subsiding, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized the need for the FOMC to consider whether further rate hikes may lead to a recession. Consequently, many experts speculate that the Fed will maintain current rates and may even consider easing them later this year if a recession emerges.

Implications for Borrowers

A pause in rate hikes should come as good news for consumers with variable-rate mortgage loans and those who have witnessed their credit card interest rates steadily climb over the past year. As the interest rate set by the Federal Reserve (known as the Fed Funds Target Rate) serves as a basis for most variable interest debt in the U.S., a halt in rate hikes should result in some stability in the rates charged by banks and credit card companies.

However, it is important to note that a pause by the Fed is unlikely to lead to immediate decreases in consumer rates. Therefore, mortgage rates are not expected to significantly retreat from their current levels once the Fed halts its actions.

Positive Outlook for Bond Holders

The surge in rates over the past 15 months has posed challenges for consumers who hold bonds in their investment portfolios. Since bond prices move inversely to yields, higher rates have caused many bonds to decrease in value. While high-quality bonds or Treasurys held until maturity generally recover their value as they approach redemption, the rate hikes over the past year have negatively impacted those who were forced to sell bonds before their value rebounded to par.

Interest Rates on Savings

While a pause or end to rate hikes should benefit borrowers, it may not be as welcoming for savers. Since the start of the current rate hike cycle, the national average yield on Treasury money market savings accounts has risen from a meager 0.08 percent in March 2022 to 4.83 percent as of May 2023.

Embracing Real Estate: Navigating Interest Rate Changes

In the midst of these changing interest rates and their impact on various investment avenues, it’s worth considering real estate as an alternative investment strategy. Real estate has long been recognized as a reliable and lucrative investment option for several reasons.

First and foremost, real estate has historically provided excellent long-term returns. While short-term market fluctuations may occur, real estate values tend to appreciate over time. Property values have consistently shown growth, making real estate investments a stable and potentially profitable choice.

Additionally, investing in real estate offers tangible benefits that other investment options may lack. Unlike stocks or bonds, real estate provides you with a physical asset that you can see, touch, and control. This tangible nature of real estate investments allows for more direct involvement in managing and improving your property, giving you a sense of ownership and control over your investment.

Moreover, real estate investments can generate multiple streams of income. Rental properties, for instance, can provide a steady cash flow through rental payments from tenants. This regular income can help offset the costs associated with owning and maintaining the property, making real estate investments self-sustaining in many cases.

Real estate investments also offer potential tax advantages. Certain tax deductions and benefits are available for property owners, such as deductions for mortgage interest, property taxes, and depreciation expenses. These tax incentives can help reduce your overall tax liability and increase your net returns on investment.

Furthermore, real estate is often considered a hedge against inflation. As inflation rises, the value of real estate tends to increase, providing a measure of protection against the erosion of purchasing power. This inflation hedging feature can help preserve the value of your investment and potentially yield higher returns compared to other assets during periods of inflation.

Lastly, real estate investments offer diversification benefits for your overall investment portfolio. By including real estate alongside stocks, bonds, and other assets, you can spread your risk and minimize exposure to the volatility of any single investment class. Diversification is a key strategy in reducing investment risk and enhancing long-term financial stability.

Considering these advantages, it’s evident that real estate presents itself as an attractive investment opportunity. However, it’s important to note that real estate investment requires careful research, market analysis, and due diligence. Consulting with a knowledgeable real estate professional, an experienced Mortgage Broker, or a financial advisor can provide valuable guidance and help you make informed decisions when venturing into the real estate market.